the genie and the bottle

Tomorrow, Feb 21 is a deadline set by the UN for Iran to cease its enrichment of uranium. To the casual observer, Iran seems to give not one tenth of a sh*t about the deadline, and the member nations of the security council seem to be in a tizzy about what to do next.

Feb. 21 is yet another day when the value of the UN is demonstrated to the world, one way or another.

No one knows how quickly Iran will be able to take the know-how that they have and convert it first to industrial capacity and then to a workable, deliverable, atomic or nuclear weapon. estimates range from one to ten years. The DPRK did it in about ten years, but Iran is better connected to the world, (despite its western image as a pariah), has a lot more money to spend, and no incentives to discontinue its work.

Much can be, and is being said about the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran. I would like to add my own brief opinion:

So what?

There. Now you have it.

The prospect of atomic weapons first became known in 1905, in germany, with Albert Einsteins postulations regarding the structure and nature of the atom. The ideas that he put forth were gradually proved, and applied in such diverse countries as Switzerland, Germany, The USSR and Japan. The US, sometimes depicted as the black hat in this pseudo western drama, came on the scene relatively late in the experimental phase, but quickly harnessed its own physical resources, as well as the intellectual power of much of Europe, and made the concepts realities.

What was known at the outset of the second world war was known worldwide, it has not been a secret, although some of the details of the physical processes used in development have been somewhat jealously and unsuccessfully guarded by powers of all stripes, but the truth is, any country with enough in the way of money can do what those powers who are members of the nuclear club have done, it just takes a little time.

What surprises me is that the errors of all these countries have been emulated by every nation that has attempted or succeeded at acquiring these weapons. The illusion here is that they have no real value anymore. This is another treatise altogether, so let me skip quickly to my conclusion: if Iran, or North Korea, or any of the others who are setting their sites on these devices were actually to use them, under any circumstances, they would quickly be reduced to a huge pile of rubble, through retalliation or by powers not directly involved in the conflict. If Iran were to nuke Israel, (a popular scenario in the horror stories that seem to dominate the discussion), they would invite full retalliation by Israel first, whatever capacity that might be, and the rest of the world second. Even Russia and China, who have been seen as siding against the US on the issues of the mideast, could not allow a new hegemony on their borders. Even India and Pakistan could not tolerate the possibilty of falling under the shadow of such a power. I don't know what country would actually pull the nuclear trigger, but it would be pulled by someone. Were an incident of terrorism ever to occur, the onus would be on those nations to quickly demonstrate a lack of culpaability or face retalliation just to appease the rest of the world.

In striving for, and attaining these devices, Iran chains itself to the same rock that many of the other great economies are chained to. That may stroke their ego's for a while, but it will eventually suck the life out of their economy, oil or no oil, and it would probably happen to them a lot faster than it has happened to the US or any other nuclear states.

They know that. We know that. The value in this 'conflict' is its ability to whip the peoples of the involved states into a frenzy of pride or fear, and thus, leaving them open for exploitation by a military-industrial or a theocratic complex whose goals and methods are hidden and largely misunderstood.

Let them have their day, it will be an anchor for them, in many respects.