where will it end?
Should we accept, and possibly embrace the horror?
A few weeks back, I noted an article that mentioned, almost casually, that the planet may be hit by a meteor in 2026. It looks like some of the lurkers on this blog may have taken this to heart, and are now gearing up for the massive effort to wonder what will we do about it?
To read some of the rather vague articles on this, one might think that there is a significant outcry from the world in general to attack this issue, and to protect ourselves from this and other like possibilities.
For those of you who don't follow the news, an asteroid named Apophis, whose size is estimated to be between 320 and 350 meters across; whose composition is unknown, (or at least unreported as yet); and whose orbital period is just less than that of our planet, (about 330 days), will apparently pass within 20,000 miles or so of the planet in 2029. There is a remote possibility that the gravity of our planet will cause a slight adjustment to the asteroids trajectory, which will set us up for an impact on or about April 13, 2036. The odds of such an occurrence are now listed as about 1 : 45,000, (give or take a couple), and one source estimates that an impact could take out an area the size of England.
The Association of Space Explorers, (which boasts a membership of at least two), has called for a global effort to identify these hazards, and to take action to negate the threats posed by these wandering bits of space stuff.
OK.
How?
One article on the National Geographic website, quotes an astronaut who is a noteworthy physicist in his own right as suggesting something called a gravity tractor. I will let you read it for yourself, (if you are inclined), but I ask that you consider the logistical considerations of this, or any proposal. Think the Manhattan Project, the Apollo program, the ISS or Iraq are expensive? You ain't seen nuthin yet. Not to mention some of the details that are not mentioned with these ideas. Even if we built, and launched into orbit the mechanisms required for any of the numerous ideas , consider the problems associated with getting these machines to the errant rock in the appropriate timeframe. We are not talking about aiming at an object that orbits the earth, (such as a satellite, space station, the moon), or an object on the same orbital plane as the earth, (such as the planets that our unmanned probes have visited), we are talking moving a massive amount of materials into interplanetary space and establishing them in as exact an orbit around the sun as we are able to calculate for the aforementioned asteroid. That feat in itself would equal the technical challenges of the engineering efforts that we have undertaken so far. I am not saying that it cannot be done, I am saying that the cost would be enormous, enough that the economy of the entire planet would need to shift and reprioritize.
Those who think that will happen, please raise your hands.
I know not how you all view this topic, but I see it as a good chance to take a step back and rethink the whole structure of society.
You knew it was coming......
Rather than attempting to fend off these seeminly random cosmic gotcha's, would it not be better to learn to deal with them? It stands to reason that the time and location of any potential impact will be a calculable thing by the time that the rock goes by in 2029. If, at that time, it is determined that a certain area is likely to be adversely affected, we would have seven years to relocate the populace, the portable wealth and much of the accumulated knowledge and industry to other, safer areas. After the strike, those displaced would have the option of returning or relocating. A major hit would almost certainly affect the environment, but it is already circling the drain, and an interbention on the part of mother nature could do not too much more harm, and may even be beneficial in the medium or long term.
People would be forced to redefine themselves and the place in the world that they occupy. That would be the difficult aspect of this, but a change of attitude would do us all some good. Unfortunately, that has about the same chance of happening as the technical stuff. So, it is up to each of us, as individuals, to pay attention to this, or not, and to take action, or not.
Just points out that all things, up to and including the planet that we live on, are fleeting.
So there.
A few weeks back, I noted an article that mentioned, almost casually, that the planet may be hit by a meteor in 2026. It looks like some of the lurkers on this blog may have taken this to heart, and are now gearing up for the massive effort to wonder what will we do about it?
To read some of the rather vague articles on this, one might think that there is a significant outcry from the world in general to attack this issue, and to protect ourselves from this and other like possibilities.
For those of you who don't follow the news, an asteroid named Apophis, whose size is estimated to be between 320 and 350 meters across; whose composition is unknown, (or at least unreported as yet); and whose orbital period is just less than that of our planet, (about 330 days), will apparently pass within 20,000 miles or so of the planet in 2029. There is a remote possibility that the gravity of our planet will cause a slight adjustment to the asteroids trajectory, which will set us up for an impact on or about April 13, 2036. The odds of such an occurrence are now listed as about 1 : 45,000, (give or take a couple), and one source estimates that an impact could take out an area the size of England.
The Association of Space Explorers, (which boasts a membership of at least two), has called for a global effort to identify these hazards, and to take action to negate the threats posed by these wandering bits of space stuff.
OK.
How?
One article on the National Geographic website, quotes an astronaut who is a noteworthy physicist in his own right as suggesting something called a gravity tractor. I will let you read it for yourself, (if you are inclined), but I ask that you consider the logistical considerations of this, or any proposal. Think the Manhattan Project, the Apollo program, the ISS or Iraq are expensive? You ain't seen nuthin yet. Not to mention some of the details that are not mentioned with these ideas. Even if we built, and launched into orbit the mechanisms required for any of the numerous ideas , consider the problems associated with getting these machines to the errant rock in the appropriate timeframe. We are not talking about aiming at an object that orbits the earth, (such as a satellite, space station, the moon), or an object on the same orbital plane as the earth, (such as the planets that our unmanned probes have visited), we are talking moving a massive amount of materials into interplanetary space and establishing them in as exact an orbit around the sun as we are able to calculate for the aforementioned asteroid. That feat in itself would equal the technical challenges of the engineering efforts that we have undertaken so far. I am not saying that it cannot be done, I am saying that the cost would be enormous, enough that the economy of the entire planet would need to shift and reprioritize.
Those who think that will happen, please raise your hands.
I know not how you all view this topic, but I see it as a good chance to take a step back and rethink the whole structure of society.
You knew it was coming......
Rather than attempting to fend off these seeminly random cosmic gotcha's, would it not be better to learn to deal with them? It stands to reason that the time and location of any potential impact will be a calculable thing by the time that the rock goes by in 2029. If, at that time, it is determined that a certain area is likely to be adversely affected, we would have seven years to relocate the populace, the portable wealth and much of the accumulated knowledge and industry to other, safer areas. After the strike, those displaced would have the option of returning or relocating. A major hit would almost certainly affect the environment, but it is already circling the drain, and an interbention on the part of mother nature could do not too much more harm, and may even be beneficial in the medium or long term.
People would be forced to redefine themselves and the place in the world that they occupy. That would be the difficult aspect of this, but a change of attitude would do us all some good. Unfortunately, that has about the same chance of happening as the technical stuff. So, it is up to each of us, as individuals, to pay attention to this, or not, and to take action, or not.
Just points out that all things, up to and including the planet that we live on, are fleeting.
So there.
posted by eccentric recluse at 2:06 PM
6 Comments:
This oughta be interesting. I suppose we'll be saved in the nick of time, but the politics, finances, and scientists' Lucy & Ethel schemes should be something to watch.
...scientists' Lucy & Ethel schemes should be something to watch...
yeah, I thought of that. Right now, the Assn of Space Explorers is drafting a committee to write a treaty to be submitted to the UN over this issue. Talk about proving the existence of black holes....
Then, later, (well, maybe),the world will hang back and wait for the US to do something.
I also wondered, as the day drew nearer and the whizkids were able to predict an impact point, what would happen to any effort if it was found that they weren't affected? What if we found that the rock might hit Russia? China? Iran? Might the braintrust suddenly run into 'technical difficulties'?
If I am still around, I will keep my bags packed, or, maybe just stay in bed and go out like the rest of the neighborhood--------with a bang!
I just hope the asteroid hits before global warming makes the summers any damn hotter.
Roy
Actually, what's with this sudden interest in all things global? Is it just me? As you know, despite my flip comment, above, I think in more or less serious terms about global warming and its possible causes (realizing the debate is still ongoing) but I don't think of the asteroid threat in the same way. I think of that as a useless exercise in dramatic fear-mongering. Is NASA trying to drum up funds?
Roy
I dunno.
I think that this might be a case of some very learned people who are experienced in one area of engineering, and they see that as the whole universe, with all other things secondary. We are all probably guilty of that to one degree or another, but I do believe that this would be a case of misplaced priorities.
I saw an article that quoted the cost of placing a 'gravitational tractor' next to this or a similar body at about 400 million dollars.
Say what? Every shuttle flight cost that much, inventing a 20Kton or larger vehicle, with propulsion, would be, I am thinking, a bit higher.
Not that it matters, but these articles all seem to need some minor fact checking. Russell Schweikart was indded an astronaut, but did not orbit the moon in 1969. This is a trivial matter, but it indicates that maybe the authors of these articles might have seen "Armeggeddon" more than once...
In 800 years time the planet has a 1-in-300 chance of being hit by 1950DA, a 1.1 mile meteor, on St. Patrick's day. Just thought you'd like to know.
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