mid-week ruminations

the market and economy in general are taking a bit of a shellacking this week. I for one, am worried. I am a guy on a fixed income, who is being particularly hard hit right now with health care costs and a few other things, not to mention the various trends in the pricing of necessities these days. I am, as the saying from the old movie goes, mad as hell, and, to paraphrase, am on the verge of not taking it anymore. Lou Dobbs makes a pretty good point here.


there. now that I got that out of my system....


what we are seeing happening to our economy is a correction. it may be more of a felony conviction, but stay with me for a moment, it is a correction. when it is over, our economy, and all the others, will be back into something of a balance, (they may be in small pieces, on the floor), but they will be in a state of equilibrium.

the same type of thing is going to happen to our culture as well. we are a people who are dependent rather than independent, and in becoming this way, we have created a situation where other peoples depend on our dependencies to survive---an ecosystem of negativity in a manner of speaking. we may not be the first to collapse, but when one culture goes down, others will at least stumble if not fall, and there will be a chain reaction. just how bad it will be is anyones guess, we will just have to wait things out.


I was reading an article from Computerworld magazine, (see it here), about yet another threat posed by the modern conveniences of our lives. Yes friends, yet another danger posed by the use of our computers in the wireless world.

The ingenuity of some people amazes me. We spend as much time keeping ourselves safe as we do being productive. Any more, in an age where some of the companies that I do business with force me to get my bill electronically, I still mail a check, (although they would much rather I sent my bank account information so they could simply withdraw the funds at their own pleasure. -- truth is, I don't trust them as far as I can speak to a real person). when I need to do some banking, I do it in person, (although it is via TV screen in the lobby of the building).

computers are great fun and somewhat handy, but in the world we live in today, I wonder if they are really worth the trouble?

monday observations

It's monday again, and we are still knee deep in election-related crap. On the democratic side of things, Barak Obama really seems to be making a showing, on the GOP side of the house, it is still anybody's guess.




Without making a comment, I think that the malaise we see on in the GOP race is indicative, (or maybe reflective), of the condition that we see on the Democratic side, the desire for change without a clear expression of exactly how. Ron Paul seems to be shaping up as a bit much, Fred Thompson is still waiting for a coronation, and the other candidates are still a bit foggy; it is a race not to see who wins, but to see who loses first, or more importantly, last.


When I see Mitt Romney, I also see John Edwards, Hillary Clinton evokes in a strange way an image of John McCain, and believe it or not, Barak Obama reminds me a bit of Mike Huckabee. It is true that these candidate pairs have little in common, (at least to hear them tell it), but they seem to fall into the same roles on their particular tracks. Truthfully, there is probably a lot more there than they want to admit, and they are pandering to the same sentiments and desires for a good reason.

What people say they want is straight talk from a candidate, but what they, in most cases mean, is they want to be comforted, to be told that everything is going to be alright. I don't think that it will be, but what do I know? There are a few issues out there that have a lot of entertainment value, and it is probably time to put them to rest, just so we can move on. Among them are abortion. To be completely honest, I think that if the government got out of the business of paying for this procedure in all but the most extreme cases, (yes, even in these tragic cases of rape and incest--to close an oft overused loophole), a lot of the controversy would go away. Tighter regulations, with some give on what would be seen as the liberal side of the health care question would also help a bit. If a woman chooses to terminate a preganancy prior to the point of viability, (established in Roe V Wade as during the first trimester), then she should engage a provider and do it, otherwise shut up. I realize that my opinion is somewhat unfeeling and may be seen as cruel, it is. My heart is really not that hard, but in a situation where jurisdiction is claimed by the individual, it really isn't necessary to involve the rest of the world, over principle or finance. If the woman cannot afford to exercise her right, I am sorry. She ought to consider other options, then move on.

Illegal immigration. I am certain that this is a problem, and that it is also a security issue, but the truth is that I don't know just how much of a problem that it is, and I suspect that most of the running mouths that decry this situatioon don't know either. Yes, I know we have a problem with a lot of crumbling infrastructure, and that we spend a lot of money on welfare and related benefits, and I have heard about free lunches and health care and blah-blah-blah, but does anyone have any idea of what it is costing? Really? And who is benefiting? Somebody is, I guarantee it.


Let's close the borders, see what we are dealing with in terms of undocumented traffic across them, (going both ways), then look inward and deal with those who shouldn't be here, and those who have reaped the benefits. What happens when/if we actually do that might appear positively liberal, (although I am certain it will be termed "humanitarian" at the time...).



Regulation of business. In the past thirty years, since the Reagan revolution, we have seen the marginalization of the individual to the extent that we simply don't matter, save as fodder for the business community to chew up and spit out while they grow fat and complacent. Now that the individual is on the ropes, and has not so much to spend, keeping the American business thriving, we are on the brink. If I ever get the chance, I will dance on Hitler's grave, and urinate on Reagan's.





It will take years, probably decades to right the wrongs of the era that we are emerging from, (if it can ever happen), and it will require the subordination of business interests to those of the individual, coupled with a respect for the power of business to propel society a bit farther than it could on its own. I see the value of business as that of a good horse, to be cared for and taken care of, but never valued more than a man.


Without going into a really long harangue here, it seems that we have stopped innovating and inventing, and we have just found more and more ways to charge more and more for the flimsiest of products. Lawyers used to be the targets of humorous derision. These days they are the pinnacle of principle. They aren't any better, but at least you know in advance how badly you are going to get screwed....

Health care? Now here is a good one, dovetails right into the regulation of business thing. In my own small opinion, one of the larger problems in the health industry is waste and inefficiency, which, not to put to fine an edge on things here, is due to the bloated insurance industry that manages it. They make the Teamsters look like small timers when it comes to managing the big-money that goes in and never comes out. The cold cruel eye of public oversight is required here, a managed, regulated monopoly might work well, with costs publicised and scrutinised by regulators at the state and federal level. The system that we have now uses between 20 and 40 percent of the money that goes in for administrative cost. The single-payer Medicare/medicaid system uses just under 6 percent. Say what you will, but they do win the efficiency war. The downside is that nobody gets real rich, and not too many Senators get large contributions.

I guess that something has to give...



Not that it matters, and it may even be xenophobic and economically counter productive, but cheap political points and the unceasing love of the electorate could be had by taxing the living hell out of the expense related to outsourced jobs. Ever talked to "Bill" or "Debbie" in Bombay? One might not if the company that employed them had to pay more in taxes and fee's than it would cost to hire a domestic employee. Press 1 for English? Set up strict licensing requirements for "interpreters" who man the phone lines, make it damned expensive to press anything besides '1'...

There. I feel better.

we got us a bar fight !!

Well, here we are, the day after the New Hampshire primary, the real start of the election season. My thanks to the voters of the Granite State for putting a little realism into the news mix today. Not that it matters, but it will be interesting to see just how long it takes for the mainstream media to spin all the little factoids that they can dig up into significant 'trends'.


John McCain won. No doubt about it. The man with the money, organization, executive credentials, and haircut, (not to mention a summer home in New Hampshire) could not overcome the presence of a man with a wide range of experience. I really don't know what kind of a president McCain would make, but in the GOP field, he is it, whether or not he gets the nomination.


On the Democratic side, Hillary came from just slightly behind to edge Obama by 2% to take the prize.

2%. Wow!

That's like the New England Patriots beating a high school team by a field goal in overtime. The woman carries a lot of baggage, and if she manages to transform herself significantly and win the nomination, the her perceived chameleon qualities will once again become apparent and her opponent will win the general election. If she stands pat, and convinces her power base that she is right and is a better executive than cover girl, AND if Obama somehow stumbles significantly, (or simply fails to maintain momentum), then she is in for a bruising fight. Obama needs to flesh out his ideas without going too far overboard; people need to see him as being with them through the rough patches that lie ahead. In politics, getting specific can be a killer, but that is what he has to do, just not too specific, lest the last words he utters on the campaign trail be "et tu John Edwards...."


In any event, if you are a political junkie, it will be an interesting year. If you aren't, well, there won't be too much on TV.....

Then there is the economy. Goldman Sachs has finally uttered the 'R' word and notes that one is on the way this year. Well, at least they are honest. Wonder what took them so long to notice?

Then there are the Iranians.


In a video that the Iranian government calls 'fabricated', a tactic that the Revolutionary Guard has used before is seen. (Funny that the US would fabricate a video and then release it to the media goons at Al-Jazeera...). Small boats, not at all unlike those seen on recreational lakes in the US are used to literally swarm another (much larger) vessel, like a swarm of bees, for the purpose of harassing, slowing, stopping or changing its course. We may tend to think that these small boats are no match for a ship of war but the tactic is quite effective, with the sheer number of small craft overwhelming the defense capability of the larger vessel. The possibility that one or more of the small boats being filled with explosives only adds another layer of complexity to the problem.

You might be able to see video here or here.

I don't believe that these little provocations are intended solely to influence American voters in the upcoming elections, but I do believe that it does figure into the decisions. Nothing could benefit the Islamist cause more than to have another xenophobe in the White House next year, and inflaming the fears and anxieties of the American public is one way to preserve the status quo.


On a related note, it is my opinion that the incident of this past weekend, I believe that this is but one of several small, but concrete steps in a campaign by Iran to claim the entire Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters, thus elevating its stature and power on the world stage. My prediction here is that there will be an escalation of tensions, as Iran attempts to interdict any and all shipping passing through the strait and the American navy and air force keep the shipping lanes open. A military confrontation is unlikely, as Iran wouldn't last 15 minutes in a shooting match, but the thought of one gives most of the oil guzzling world the willies....

Stay focused.

More of the same

I watched a little bit of the debate(s) this past weekend, and I was amazed at the inability of the candidates to stay on topic. All, without fail, of these people would make good TV pitch people, being able to (almost) seamlessly segue from almost any topic back to how they, and not anyone else, pointed this problem out weeks before anyone else, always failing to note that they took no substantive action, but noticing that the other candidates were always off-base or simply wrong in their opinions or prognostications.


I would really like to see a candidate say yes, I called that one wrong, based on what we knew at the time, but in light of what I know now....


I would also like to see a detailed answer to a question that emphasizes the candidates own views and studiously avoids pointing out the deficiencies of all other candidates positions. The contrast will be clear to most voters and it will wear well with the electorate at large that they are given some credit for being able to see the difference.


Quite a few things were said, naturally, about the war in Iraq, and what has happened, and what should have happened, and what we are all afraid will happen. The same with health care, but not so much with the environment, ("global warming" too the place of the environment--very significant and urgent to be sure, but it is an issue de jour, to see is as less then a piece of a larger picture undercuts the entire issue).



One of the things that I feel got the short shrift in the entire debate, on both sides of the party line, was the economy, stupid. The fact that it was glossed over in such a wholesale manner says a whole lot more than all the statistics and WSJ columns you can get your hands on.


On the subject of the mideast, for any candidates who might be reading this, I am no longer interested in hearing any recriminations over how badly this has been handled by the Administration and the Congress. Truth is, it has been. I want to hear a quick concise assessment of where we are right now, where we want to be in a year and why, and what it will take to get there. A short follow up on the repercussions of this policy would then be appropriate.


On the issue of health care, same criteria, except I want a more in depth analysis of the market's role in how we got to be in this mess, what the market draws off in terms of administrative costs and inefficiencies, and what role the government has as an adjudicator.

We deserve better from these people.


A late update:

The Iranian government, speaking through the agency of the Revolutionary Guard in five swift boats in the Strait of Hormuz, posed a scenario this weekend that will reverberate through the electoral process. Make no mistake, this gesture was intended not simply to flip the bird to George W., who happens to be in the neighborhood this week, (we all do that), it is also intended to put a bit of a spin on the hearts and minds of those voters in the U.S. of A. who are preparing to decide on a new leadership regime.

How they were trying to spin things is not clear, (perhaps they themselves don't know), but they were trying to be sure that they were in the picture....