The Tipping Point
Two news reports caught my eye yesterday, one regarded the current war in Iraq, the other, the state of the war on the Taliban in Pakistan. Neither was encouraging. It appears that one province in Iraq is all but lost. A report to the Pentagon from the top Marine officer in the zone notes that the coalition forces are not defeated militarily, but are all but defeated politically---in other words, the battle for the hearts and minds of the locals has been won by the Islamic insurgency. This is bad news for the coalition. No deadlines have yet been set by anyone, but the impending resignation of Tony Blair in the UK tells me that the Brits will be pulling out shortly thereafter, and with them I suspect the Canadians and Australians as well.
We will be at war alone, without support from our erstwhile friends or the indigenous peoples of that country. (I am hesitant to say Vietnam here...).
The other report concerned the areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan, and are thoughtto harbor bin Laden and other noteworthy targets. The trouble with these areas is that even Pakistan does not hold sway with these people, they are Islamic to the core and loyalto those who serve their needs, namely, the Taliban and al-Quaida, whose stated aims andmodus operandi happen to adhere to the standards of the region. Coalition troops cannot enter these areas as the presence of any non-Muslim troops might cause a backlash that would throw the (relatively) moderate regime (a military dictatorship), out on its collective ass, leaving the government of that country, its army and weapons capable infratructure in the hands of those that we cannot abide.
This is not encouraging. There are those in the media who take a different view of things, and I worry that they may have the ear of those who are actually running things. Here is a good example. These people take the position that what we have done up to this point is failing, so lets keep doing it, and do more of it.
What seems to be developing in the region is the emergence of an Islamist caliphate regime , centered in Iran, and stretching from India on the east, to Lebanon on the Mediteranean sea. If this comes to fruition, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to remain neutral towards the west. If it falls, then Egypt and North Africa will follow. Let me say that it is my sincere hope that this can be avoided, but the cost of stopping that development now seems almost unthinkably high. If events continue to spiral in the manner that they are today, what will be the end of it?
In the past few weeks there has been a lot of talk about a lot of things military, missile defense, using refitted submarine launched ICBM's against terrorist targets, the need todeny nuclear weapons to the extremist factions in the region, the sale of new submarines to Iran by Germany, (with allies like that, why do we need enemies?....). A military action will not solve this problem. Our coalition has to sell itself to the peoples of the region as something besides "crusaders". Our troops should be educated in the customs and practicesof the region, and should be understanding orders to respect those traditions. Women should not be permitted on Islamic soil. That is contrary to our way of seeing things, (at least to the letter of our laws), but we are trying to convince them, not ourselves. And we should be putting much more materials and time into relief efforts, tangible things that can build a level of trust. That notion may not be realistic, at least in the minds of those who manage the military, but the alternative appears to be alot worse.
We will be at war alone, without support from our erstwhile friends or the indigenous peoples of that country. (I am hesitant to say Vietnam here...).
The other report concerned the areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan, and are thoughtto harbor bin Laden and other noteworthy targets. The trouble with these areas is that even Pakistan does not hold sway with these people, they are Islamic to the core and loyalto those who serve their needs, namely, the Taliban and al-Quaida, whose stated aims andmodus operandi happen to adhere to the standards of the region. Coalition troops cannot enter these areas as the presence of any non-Muslim troops might cause a backlash that would throw the (relatively) moderate regime (a military dictatorship), out on its collective ass, leaving the government of that country, its army and weapons capable infratructure in the hands of those that we cannot abide.
This is not encouraging. There are those in the media who take a different view of things, and I worry that they may have the ear of those who are actually running things. Here is a good example. These people take the position that what we have done up to this point is failing, so lets keep doing it, and do more of it.
What seems to be developing in the region is the emergence of an Islamist caliphate regime , centered in Iran, and stretching from India on the east, to Lebanon on the Mediteranean sea. If this comes to fruition, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to remain neutral towards the west. If it falls, then Egypt and North Africa will follow. Let me say that it is my sincere hope that this can be avoided, but the cost of stopping that development now seems almost unthinkably high. If events continue to spiral in the manner that they are today, what will be the end of it?
In the past few weeks there has been a lot of talk about a lot of things military, missile defense, using refitted submarine launched ICBM's against terrorist targets, the need todeny nuclear weapons to the extremist factions in the region, the sale of new submarines to Iran by Germany, (with allies like that, why do we need enemies?....). A military action will not solve this problem. Our coalition has to sell itself to the peoples of the region as something besides "crusaders". Our troops should be educated in the customs and practicesof the region, and should be understanding orders to respect those traditions. Women should not be permitted on Islamic soil. That is contrary to our way of seeing things, (at least to the letter of our laws), but we are trying to convince them, not ourselves. And we should be putting much more materials and time into relief efforts, tangible things that can build a level of trust. That notion may not be realistic, at least in the minds of those who manage the military, but the alternative appears to be alot worse.
posted by eccentric recluse at 5:11 AM
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