funny how things sometimes turn out

Funny. Well, not really. But the point is that nobody could see this coming, and it may be the most significant event in the history of this particular war.

It's raining in Pakistan. And flooding. And getting worse. Holy Katrina!

And as it rains, and continues to flood the productive northwest agricultural zone of that country, the less than popular government is slipping in the eyes of the local gentry. Even the government bureaucracy is distancing itself from the, (ahem), elected establishment.

Remember that the bureaucrats are the people who supplied the North Koreans with the know-how and technology to advance from rogue state to nuclear armed rogue state, and who answer only to the highest bidder on the international black market when it comes to arms, opium and shady deals. The elected government officials are, at least nominally, our allies, (who won't let us into their country to chase al-Qaeda because it might upset the locals and cause them to lose face). These are the ones we support and prop up.

And they are losing their influence because of the weather. Like I said, it's funny in a way, that the whole situation could spin out of control and completely disintegrate on such a mundane factor. I mean, who could see it coming? We will be unable to protect what flank we have in Afghanistan if Pakistan falls, or even teeters, and, having no defined objective, we will be unable to, you know, win.

My prediction is that this won't be talked about on the sunday news shows. I hope that I am wrong, and that it won't be necessary to talk about it, but the time to win the war against bin Laden, (yes, I said bin Laden, not something murky like terrorism or radical Islam or something equally undefined). Heavy aid, delivered directly to those who need it, given without restriction, accompanied by a quick retreat and the promise not to fuck with them, just as soon as we get the guy who killed our friends. This will do more to get concrete results in the mideast than 200 F-16's sold to the candy-assed regime in Islamabad.

The tribal people, many of whom don't know what we are there for anyway, might understand and respect the mission. We go in, we help the local farmers as much as we can, we LISTEN to their needs and fill them as much as we are able, and, while we are there, we explain that if we see any of the following people, (Osama and the others on our most wanted list), we will kill them if we cannot capture them, and that is the deal. If they accept it, good, if not, too bad. Accept the aid package and have a nice day.

Then we leave. I said earlier that we don't know what a win really looks like.

Everybody knows a loss when they see it.

Thats my opinion for the week.