Monday, July 18, 2011
Winston Churchill, speaking of America and Great Britain, once said something to the effect that they were two nations separated by a common language.
That seems to be a model for a situation that exists today between the two major political parties (as well as a smaller subset known as the tea party) and their audience, the voting public, (notoriously addicted to television).
This has surfaced before, and is still simmering in the abortion debate.
It is at work now in the debt debate.
This is an editorial blog, the opinions presented here represent the most significant majority in the nation -- me. I hope that it sheds some light not just on my opinion, but the rationale behind it.
Either of you reading this may disagree with me, but you might consider the path to my conclusion, as well as the conclusion itself.
First, my impression is that there is very little deep conviction regarding the debt on the part of most members of the Congress, (the Tea-Partiers are an exception, and I suspect that they would waver if a choice were given between a tax cut of some variety, especially a targeted tax cut, and a definite reduction in debt).
Conclusion 1: The drama and particularly the indignation that surrounds the debt issue is a tool to smear the present administration. Debt is not bad when it is administered by the opposing party. (It would be no different if the party roles were reversed, but the tactics would be different).
The two warring parties will reach no agreement without laying out specific proposals, and outlining a specific expectation for the savings year by year for the next decade. The trouble is, the two parties both speak English, but the terms mean different things. Without a commonly agreed definition of terms, (one that the audience buys into, or at least understands -- you can't tell the players without a program...), this will go nowhere.
Conclusion 2: There is a much touted deadline of Aug 2 to reach an agreement. The 'positions' of both sides are so much political smoke to cover the backbiting and sucker-punching that takes place in the run up to any action on the part of the Congress. A default, even a symbolic one, would harm the fiefdoms of too many Congresspeople. A deal has probably been reached, and will be announced at a point very close to the deadline.
The problem that I have is that I can't fathom the position of either side of this. The terms that they use are defined only to themselves, and thus, mean nothing. The promises that they make, using those same terms, mean nothing, because they mean what the promiser says they mean and to hell with anyones interpretations or assumptions. The thing that I admire about the Tea Party faction, (and it is singular), is that the veneer over their rhetoric is fairly thin. They know that they are going to screw a lot of people and don't care if that portion of the population knows it, They see it as patriotic sacrifice. I notice that not too many of them are in that particular demographic. I want specifics. I want to see a plan from the Dem's on who, what, how much and how long new tax's will impact the economy. I want to hear how spending is to be modified by both parties, and how social programs will be changed and how individuals will e protected from catastrophic loss during and after these changes. There are "mainstream" Representatives and Senators willing to cut Social Security and Medicare out altogether. That may not be a bad idea, save for the fact that I have been social-engineered, (required), to be in the plan for the last 48 years and now when I want a little money back, they say that I am not "entitled"?
That scenario may be a little far-fetched, (or not), but like I say, I want specifics.
That also goes for a lot of other programs and initiatives that government administers. Small government may be a good thing, but not always. Too much power in the hands of business and money interests is equally, (and arguably more) detrimental.
But I will save that for another rant.
6 Comments:
I think the general campaign to effectively ban abortion, either on the federal level or state by state, especially when I read about some of the specifics of these new laws, is a symptom of bigger government, not smaller. I think the term "smaller government" is just another buzzword that has no real meaning to the boys on the hill. The same goes, I think, to the efforts to stifle the unions. It is, if anything, closer to regulation than "small government." Much of the communication failures you talk about stem from the fact that the polarity, supposedly, between the two parties is largely artificial, and the language that comes out of it just doesn't ring true, (because it is fundamentally a bunch of bullshit.)
Regarding the debt, the raising of the ceiling in the past (9 times under George W.) was normally blithely accomplished, calling it "housekeeping." Given that, I would say this time you're seeing the Republicans trying real hard to undermine Obama's presidency. Not that I blame them. Only the ways they are doing it--which is to hold the economy hostage. I assume they have hopes of blaming Obama when the shit hits the fan?
I agree to an extent, but I think the term "big & small" government are as meaningless as most of the rest of the emotionally charged terms out there.
Big government is something that the wielder of that particular tar-bucket disagrees with. Small, reasonable government is anything that they favor, no matter how far reaching, intrusive or expensive.
Universal health care is big government. Government subsidization of a specialized cancer hospital is not.
I sometimes think that universal health care would have a much netter chance of going thru if there was an us vs them element in it. If it specifically excluded somebody. Illegal aliens, or persons known to be non-citizens in this country illegally for nefarious purposes. You know, so we didn't have to support them.
Do a little math, and figure out what will happen to the cost of just servicing debt interest; if rates go up just a point or two..
THAT's the first problem. We're literally at the point where the debt will grow on it's own, fast enough to break us, even if we ran a balanced budget for a generation.
Problem two, is coincidental... we're being told that balancing the budget quickly (like with 5 years) is impossible without gutting the government, but at our current $1.5T deficit, and whatever rate we hope to taper it off to a balanced budget, leaves us (by any of these plans), trillions of dollars deeper in debt than the current tipping point.
So..all this blathering (here too) about politicians blaming and smearing eachother, is as big a part of the problem as anything else. It's just noise.
Gut the government to balance the budget now, or let the government self-gut entirely, as debt service becomes the biggest expense.
I think we're already cooked... they know it.. and are just jockeying for positions during the rebuilding.
You have a point. Taxes will go up, they have to, or the folks who have the most to lose will lose it when debt holders seize assets overseas or close markets.
The issue will be the structure of our financial society and resource allocation here. Something that is sometimes called "socialism", although at other times it was called "rationing" will need to be put in place, the issue is how it will be presented and how much dignity will all of us be allowed to maintain.
Basic health care is one of those commodities, but there are others. If those networks are in place under (relatively) controlled conditions, they needn't be imposed by a debt holding nation later.
We will see.
I am still holding out for (1) the rapture, rescheduled for October, (hopefully after the World Series; or (2) the end of the world in 2012, as seen by the Mayans.
They were probably thinking of a Palin-Bachman ticket.....
-ER
Thanks for the chuckle...
Now, as for taxes.. it doesn't matter if they're raised or cut. Ponder the math:
Eliminating ALL of the Bush cuts, would net ~$80B/year.. assuming that there is no retarding of an alread sick economy.. $80B is about five percent of JUST the current, annual defict. Then assume that you could come up with tax-scheme that equals an additional amount, FIVE times what the Bush cut repeal would yield. Now of course that would literally shut the economy down.. but if it didn't, we're still looking at reducing JUST THE DEFICIT, by only one-third. In other words, a fantasy-based revenus stream couldn't get our heads above water.. hence my opinion that we've been long since cooked... we're well past the point of no return.
As for the rebuilding ? There will be no socialism from anarchy.. it'll be (if we're lucky), a form of Constitutional Libertarianism. The folks with the means and assets to initiate the rebuild, will not turn things over to some big rationing body.
You may be right, truth is, there is no way to tell. This is a lot like a couple of theologians arguing about what color the halls of heaven are.
One way to find out, and nobody wants to go first.
There is always the possibility that the country will keep going on inertia alone.
I believe a lot of things about this mess, but I think that a good deal of what we are seeing is jockeying for position at the trough when this little soap opera (and the next election) plays itself out.
As I see it, this little play is called "who is the biggest asshole?" and the last time it was produced, Obama got elected. We in the audience just don't interpret things the way the players do.
As far as catastrophe goes, I am not downplaying it a bit, but consider a thought here:
Borrow a million dollars from the bank, and the bank owns your ass. Borrow a trillion dollars from the bank, and you have them by the balls.
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